Benedict says No Election

Benedict Brogan in the Daily Mail says there will be no election this year. He has spoken to the Labour spinners and they are indicating:

• Brown Central is convinced that George Osborne has given them all the ammunition they need for a protracted demolition campaign centred on the "fantasy" costings behind his tax cut proposals. Some are even seeing it as a Black Wednesday moment that will prove to be as disastrous for the credibility of the Cameron/Osborne generation as 1992 was for John Major and his lot.(Hmm from the figures seen so far anyone could be right, but it will not be a major factor)
  
• Labour polling in its key marginals has produced mixed results, and not the clear evidence of a big win some MPs suggested last week. (This will be key)
  
• I understand the CSR has been decoupled from an election announcement. Alistair Darling has been told he can go ahead, probably Monday, regardless of what Mr Brown does. The CSR no longer means there will automatically be an election. (Who Cares)
  
• Mr Brown's advisers believe that there is not enough time between now and November1/8 to persuade the public that Mr Osborne's inheritance tax giveaway is not what it's cracked up to be.(If they can't do it now no-one will believe them)
  
• They also believe that once they get past the initial "he's bottled out" jeering, politics will return to normal and within months the public will have forgotten the excitement we have been living through in Bournemouth and Blackpool. (They may be right but people will be reminded, whenever he has another Macavity Moment)
  
• Mr Brown has been keeping a keen eye on events elsewhere, no least the spread of foot and mouth, the political situation in Scotland, and the evidence that suggests the public is not clamouring for a contest. (Grasping at straws here, though the Scotland situation will be worrying Brown)
  

Reading through this we get the message, Brown has bottled it, the polls are against him, he knows he will struggle in a straight fight against Cameron for top billing and fears a top three entry in the charts for shortest reign as a Prime Minister or a loss of Prestige as Blair's majority is lost. Courage is not his middle name.

Brown will choose the easy option and wait as long as possible, he has already had to wait ten years to finally get where he wanted, why lose it all now.


Benedict Brogan's political blog